Midterm ad costs in 2026: the $11.6B squeeze

Published October 15, 2026.

The record number, in context

AdImpact's current projection for the 2026 cycle is $11.6 billion, reported by Reuters in June 2026. Two comparisons show why forecasters keep using the word "record." The 2024 presidential cycle — normally the most expensive kind of election — spent $11.2 billion. The last midterms, in 2022, spent $8.9 billion. A midterm passing a presidential year is new, and AdImpact raised its own forecast to get there: its earlier estimate was $10.8 billion.

A second forecaster lands in the same place. KPI, working from buy-side orders, station public files, FEC schedules, and transparency data through mid-September, forecasts $11.96 billion across the two-year cycle, including $10.35 billion tied to this year's races. When two firms with different methods agree within a few percent, treat the total as solid and argue about the splits instead.

Where the money goes

AdImpact's channel split, as reported in October coverage of its June release:

• Broadcast TV: about $5.6 billion — still the largest single share, just under half the total.
• Connected TV: about $2.6 billion — now ahead of cable, a reversal from 2022. Campaigns prize CTV's household targeting; our CTV advertising costs guide breaks down what that inventory normally costs.
• Digital (Meta, Google, Snapchat, X): about $1.6 billion.
• Cable TV: about $1.4 billion, and radio about $273 million — the smallest major line in the forecast.

KPI's split looks different — broadcast at $4.88 billion for this year's races, streaming and digital combined at $4.14 billion, cable at $1.1 billion, radio at $230 million — mainly because it groups streaming with digital and scopes its count differently. The shared story matters more than the decimals: TV in all its forms takes the bulk, streaming keeps gaining on cable, and radio barely registers. By race, AdImpact attributes about $3.4 billion to Senate contests, $2.4 billion to governors' races, and $2 billion to House races.

The October price squeeze, measured

Political money does not spread evenly across the calendar. It detonates in the final weeks. KPI's September data gives the clearest price signal available this cycle:

• Median October TV pricing is 1.79x spring pricing, and five of every six rated markets price October above spring.
• $2.5 billion in TV, cable, and radio ads had already aired by September 11 — $292 million ahead of the comparable 2022 midterm pace — with another $1.67 billion reserved through Election Day at that point.
• October was still the biggest open window: more than $1 billion in spots were already reserved for the month, with about $1.5 billion more still to be bought when KPI reported.

That 1.79x figure is a median, not a ceiling. In the hottest markets — the ones with a Senate race, a governor's race, and ballot fights stacked together — spot prices and preemption rates run hotter. In states with no competitive statewide race, October can feel almost normal. Your mileage is a function of your map.

The hot map: where your CPM competes with a campaign

AdImpact expects the biggest state totals in Texas (about $850 million) and Ohio (about $749 million), with Maine — a small state with a marquee Senate race — at roughly $491 million, which is an enormous per-capita figure. KPI's state table, scoped to this year's races, puts Michigan first at $980 million, then California at $900 million, Georgia at $840 million, and Ohio at $775 million. The two firms rank states differently because they count differently; both agree on the concentration: 13 states take $7.5 billion of KPI's $10.35 billion for this year's races.

Practical translation: a home-services advertiser buying broadcast or CTV in Columbus, Dallas, Atlanta, or Detroit this month is in the most expensive auction in American media. The same advertiser in a non-competitive state is mostly watching this happen on the news. Check any local quote against baseline rates on our TV advertising costs page before you accept an "election season" surcharge as fact.

What non-political advertisers should do now

1. Split your reporting by state. A blended national CPM hides the problem. If battleground-state CPMs are up 40% and everywhere else is flat, that is a routing problem, not a creative problem.
2. Lean on the channels campaigns ignore. Radio draws only about $230–$273 million of an $11.6 billion cycle, and podcasting does not appear as a political line item at all. Our radio advertising costs and podcast advertising costs pages show how cheap that reach is relative to TV right now.
3. Pre-book or go remnant — do not drift into the auction. Fixed-price placements bought early lock a rate. Open-auction CTV and social buys in hot states reprice daily against campaign demand.
4. Move flexible brand spend to November 4 onward. Political buying ends on Election Day, November 3. Awareness campaigns that can wait three weeks buy the same audiences without the campaign premium — though holiday retail demand is the next competitor in line.
5. Expect social auctions to wobble, not spike evenly. Digital is about $1.6 billion of the political total, targeted tightly at persuadable voters in specific states. Broad national social campaigns may barely notice; geo-targeted campaigns in swing states will. Model both cases with the ad cost calculator.
6. Do not panic-cut Q4 budgets in September. The squeeze is measured in weeks. Advertisers who planned around it — shifted geos, shifted channels, shifted timing — mostly kept their cost per result intact in past cycles.

Frequently asked questions

Sources & methodology

• Reuters (June 11, 2026): US midterm advertising bill to hit record $11.6 bln, AdImpact says ($11.6B total; $11.2B in 2024; $8.9B in 2022; Texas $850M, Ohio $749M, Maine $491M)
• The Desk / Kinetiq Political Insights (September 22, 2026): Political ad spending expected to hit $12 billion as midterm races heat up ($11.96B cycle forecast; October median pricing 1.79x spring; $2.5B aired by September 11; 13 states = $7.5B)
• PPC Land (October 2026): Midterm ad spending overtakes the 2024 presidential race (AdImpact channel split: broadcast $5.6B, CTV $2.6B, digital $1.6B, cable $1.4B, radio $273M; race-type split)

Data checked October 15, 2026. These are forecasts for a cycle that ends November 3, 2026, from two firms (AdImpact and KPI) that scope and group channels differently — figures from the two are labeled by source above and should not be mixed in a single calculation. Final totals will differ.

Go deeper with AI

This article is the starting point. Copy any of these prompts into your favorite AI assistant to learn more about 2026 midterm ad costs and the election-season squeeze on regular advertisers:

🔎 Estimate the election premium in YOUR markets

I advertise [my product/service] in [my states/cities] using [TV / CTV / Meta / Google — list]. Political ad spending in the 2026 midterms is projected at a record $11.6 billion (AdImpact), concentrated in 13 battleground states, with median October TV pricing at 1.79x spring (KPI). Estimate how exposed each of my markets and channels is, and rank them from highest to lowest election-season cost risk. Flag any figure you are estimating rather than citing.

🧭 Build a route-around plan for October

Build me a 4-week media plan for October 2026 for a budget of $[X] that routes around political ad competition: shift spending toward radio, podcast, and non-battleground geographies, keep a reduced presence in my core markets of [list], and schedule the flexible brand budget to restart after Election Day (November 3). For each week, show the channel, the geo, the budget, and the one metric that tells me it is working.

💡 Challenge a quote that blames "election season"

A media seller quoted me $[X] CPM for [channel] in [market] for [dates], saying prices are up because of the election. Using 2026 baselines (standard CTV $25–$45 CPM, broadcast benchmarks, and the KPI finding that median October TV pricing is 1.79x spring), write: (1) three questions that test whether the increase is real or padded, (2) what a fair October rate would look like for this buy, and (3) a short negotiation script I can read on the call.

Tip: replace the bracketed parts with your own situation — the more specific your prompt, the more useful the answer.

The bottom line

The 2026 midterms will spend more on advertising than the 2024 presidential race — $11.6 billion by AdImpact's count, nearly $12 billion by KPI's — and almost all of the pain for ordinary advertisers is compressed into a few states and the five weeks before November 3. Broadcast still takes the largest share, CTV has passed cable, and radio and podcast inventory sit largely outside the bidding war.

The single most important takeaway: do not pay campaign prices for ordinary reach. The squeeze is a map and a calendar — 13 states, ending November 3 — so win by routing around it, not by outbidding it.

Want better prompts, in your inbox?

One sharper AI prompt + one new ad cost topic every week. Free forever, unsubscribe anytime.

Subscribe

We never share your email. One email a week, that's the deal.