Social ad costs, fall 2026

Published October 1, 2026.

Display CPMs are down sharply

AdRoll's Q3 2026 report, released September 22, 2026, analyzed campaign data from July 1 through September 8, 2026. The headline: display prospecting CPMs fell 45% year over year, and were down 25.5% versus Q2 2026.

Display type	Change YoY	vs Q2 2026
Prospecting	CPM down 45%	down 25.5%
Retargeting	CPM down 29.1%	down 40.2%
ABM (account-based)	CPM up 4.4%	down 15.1%

AdRoll CEO Vibhor Kapoor put the drop in economic context. U.S. inflation stood at 3.4% in August 2026. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell 7.5% from August to September. Yet household card spending rose 4.5% year over year in August — consumers are spending, but advertisers are paying less to reach them.

For holiday planners, the timing matters. CPMs usually climb as the holidays approach and inventory gets crowded. This year's pre-holiday trough is unusually deep, which may make early October a cheaper moment to lock in prospecting campaigns before the November rush.

Meta vs. TikTok: spend is up, efficiency is splitting

Metricool's 2026 Social Ads Report, released September 21, 2026, is built on 628,969 paid campaigns from 44,355 advertisers, covering more than $471 million in ad spend. The scale makes it one of the largest social advertising datasets published this year.

Metric (2026)	Meta	TikTok
Avg. campaign spend	$718.45 (up 47% YoY from $489.53)	$1,309 (about 2x Meta)
Sales-campaign ROAS	4.57x (down from 5.48x in 2025)	—
Cost per lead	$6.00 (up 14% YoY)	$2.69 (down 33% YoY)
Traffic CPC	$0.07	$0.03
Clicks per campaign	—	Roughly 8x more than Meta
Advertisers running paid exclusively here	91%	5%

Meta costs more, delivers less than last year. Average Meta campaign spend rose 47% year over year, from $489.53 to $718.45. ROAS on Meta Sales campaigns fell from 5.48x in 2025 to 4.57x in 2026. Meta's cost per lead rose 14% year over year, to $6.00.

TikTok looks cheaper per action. TikTok traffic campaigns averaged $0.03 per click, versus $0.07 on Meta. TikTok's cost per lead fell 33% year over year, to $2.69 — less than half of Meta's $6.00. TikTok generated roughly 8x more clicks per campaign than Meta.

But most advertisers still ignore TikTok. 91% of advertisers run paid exclusively on Meta. Only 5% run paid exclusively on TikTok. The average TikTok campaign spends $1,309 — about twice Meta's $718 average. Advertisers who commit to TikTok spend heavily there.

Strategy mismatch on Meta: 70% of Meta ad spend goes to bottom-of-funnel objectives, even though 67% of Meta campaigns focus on Traffic and Engagement. The campaigns are optimized up top; the money is spent down low.

What the numbers suggest for holiday budgets

1. Consider front-loading display prospecting. With prospecting CPMs down 45% year over year through early September, building audiences in October — before holiday auction pressure hits — is cheaper than waiting.
2. Test TikTok for lead generation. A $2.69 cost per lead against Meta's $6.00 is a meaningful gap. Only 5% of advertisers run TikTok exclusively, which suggests competitive inventory may still be less crowded than Meta.
3. Watch the spend-efficiency gap on Meta. Meta's average campaign spend is up 47% while Sales ROAS is down to 4.57x. Budget increases without efficiency gains should trigger creative and targeting reviews, not just bigger bids.
4. Fix the funnel mismatch. If most of your budget sits at the bottom of the funnel but your campaigns are optimized for traffic, re-align objectives before holiday spend peaks.

Frequently asked questions

Sources & methodology

• AdRoll via GlobeNewswire / Eagle Country (Sept 22, 2026): AdRoll reports 45% drop in prospecting CPMs ahead of the holiday advertising season (Q3 2026 report, July 1–Sept 8 data)
• Metricool (Sept 21, 2026): 2026 Social Ads Report press release (628,969 campaigns, 44,355 advertisers, $471M+ spend)

Data checked October 1, 2026. Ad costs are auction outcomes that move daily — treat these as planning baselines for the 2026 holiday season.