After Election Day: the November price release
Most price spikes fade slowly. This one has an end date printed on the calendar. When voting closes on Tuesday, November 3, the record midterm ad buy stops — and the inventory it was sitting on comes back to market three weeks before Black Friday. Here is which prices unwind, which do not, and how to be ready to buy the gap.
Published October 31, 2026. Our midterm ad costs guide covered the squeeze: a record political cycle pushing commercial advertisers out of local TV and streaming inventory at campaign prices. This guide covers the other side of the same event — the release. Political demand does not taper; it ends. What that means for your November media plan depends on where the premium was sitting in the first place.
How much premium there is to unwind
Digiday's October 26 reporting, citing AdImpact, put expected midterm political spending at about $12 billion, with roughly $8.2 billion of it headed for TV and connected TV. (Forecast totals vary by house and definition — AdImpact's earlier published figure was $11.6 billion; the direction is not in dispute.) The money was not spread evenly. It concentrated in contested states — Texas, Wisconsin, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Ohio among them — which is why the price effects below are market reports, not national averages:
| Where | What agencies reported in October 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Texas linear TV | CPMs typically up 10–15%; some programming up 30–50% | Electric Symphony Media, via Digiday (Oct 26) |
| Premium CTV / streaming, targeted markets | Average CPMs up from about $34–35 to $43 | Collective Measures, via Digiday (Oct 26) |
| YouTube | Average CPM up about 20% in recent weeks, per one agency executive | Digiday (Oct 26) |
| YouTube + Meta, political buyers | $149M spent in the week beginning Oct 11, vs $34M in the final week of July; $97M of it to Google, 95% as YouTube video | AdsMom, via Digiday (Oct 26) |
Read the table as a map of where the release will be felt. A buyer in a quiet state on national inventory never paid most of this premium, and will not see most of the relief. A regional advertiser in Texas or Wisconsin paid it twice — once in price, and once in preemptions, covered below.
What falls first — and what does not fall at all
Local and regional TV and CTV in battleground markets fall first. Campaigns were the marginal buyer setting those prices, and after November 3 there are no more campaign briefs. Stations and streaming sellers who spent October turning commercial buyers away start calling them back. If you were quoted a battleground CTV price in the low $40s in October, the honest November question is what that same placement costs without a campaign in the auction — compare it against the pre-squeeze levels in our CTV advertising costs guide, not against the October quote.
Preempted inventory comes back as make-goods. Many local TV contracts let the station bump a commercial spot when a political buyer pays more; the advertiser receives make-good inventory instead of the slot it planned. Digiday reported heavy preemptions in Wisconsin in October. After the election, audit exactly which of your spots were bumped, and claim the make-goods while November and December still hold inventory worth having. A make-good offered in January is worth far less than the October slot it replaces.
National and non-political streaming prices barely move. Agencies told Digiday that national inventory was less exposed to political inflation, and that advertisers fleeing battlegrounds pushed demand — and prices — up on Netflix, Prime Video and Disney+, which do not accept political ads. That displaced demand does not vanish on November 4; some of it stays. Do not budget a discount there just because the election ended.
Holiday demand replaces political demand on a delay. Black Friday falls on November 27 and Cyber Monday on November 30 this year. Retail competition for social, search and streaming builds through November regardless of the election — our Black Friday seasonality guide covers how that second spike behaves. The release window is therefore a gap between two peaks, not a return to spring prices: roughly November 4 to November 20, before holiday auctions reach full pressure.
How to buy the release window
- Be approved and ready before November 3. The window rewards buyers who can sign in the first week. Creative cleared, budgets authorised, and insertion orders drafted during the final campaign week — not started after it.
- Re-quote, do not just resume. If you paused a battleground buy in October, do not restart it at the October rate out of habit. Ask for a fresh quote and name the reason: the campaign buyer has left the market. Use the ad cost calculator to model what the same impressions should cost at pre-squeeze CPMs.
- Collect your make-goods early. List every preempted spot from September and October, and settle replacements in the first half of November, while sellers still have saleable holiday inventory to offer.
- Sequence channels by how much premium they carried. Local TV and battleground CTV first, battleground social and YouTube next, national last. The order follows the size of the premium documented above — buy first where the release is largest.
- Hold some budget for Black Friday week itself. The release window is for rebuilding presence cheaply; it is not a reason to arrive at November 27 spent. Keep the holiday peak funded separately.
What not to assume
Three cautions. First, no source publishes a reliable national "prices fall X% after the election" figure, and anyone quoting one is guessing: the drop in your market is the political premium in your market, nothing more general. Second, rate relief and availability are different things — a station can cut prices and still be sold out of the specific programme you want, because holiday advertisers were booking while campaigns were still on air. Third, going dark until the election and returning the day after only works if the return is prepared; Digiday's agency sources noted that a full stop is hard to come back from, which is why the steps above start before Election Day, not after it.
Frequently asked questions
Do ad prices drop after Election Day 2026?
The political premium does. Campaign buying stops after November 3, so battleground inflation — Texas linear CPMs typically up 10–15% in October, premium CTV up from about $34–35 to $43 — loses the buyer that caused it. There is no single national percentage: your saving equals the premium that was in your market and channel, and holiday demand keeps many prices firm through Black Friday on November 27.
Which ad prices fall first after the election?
Local and regional TV and CTV in contested states, where campaign money concentrated and preemptions hit commercial advertisers. National inventory had less political premium to give back, and streaming services that refuse political ads may stay firm because displaced advertisers moved there and some stay.
What is a preemption, and why does it matter in November?
A contract clause that lets a broadcaster bump a commercial spot when a political buyer pays more. The advertiser usually gets make-good inventory instead. Audit your September–October preemptions right after the election and claim make-goods while useful holiday inventory remains.
When is the post-election buying window in 2026?
Roughly November 4 to November 20 — after political demand ends, before Black Friday (November 27) retail competition peaks. Have creative, budgets and approvals ready before Election Day so you can buy as the window opens.
Sources & methodology
- Digiday (Oct 26, 2026): Midterm spending throws spanner into advertiser holiday plans — AdImpact about $12B total political spend, $8.2B to TV/CTV; Texas linear CPMs +10–15% typical, +30–50% some programming (Electric Symphony Media); premium CTV $34–35 → $43 (Collective Measures); YouTube CPM +~20% (agency executive); AdsMom $149M YouTube+Meta political spend in week of Oct 11 vs $34M final week of July, $97M to Google / 95% YouTube video; Wisconsin preemptions; flight to Netflix / Prime Video / Disney+; national inventory less exposed.
- Ad4Sale (Oct 15, 2026): Midterm ad costs 2026 — earlier AdImpact $11.6B forecast figure and KPI price measurements; forecast totals differ by house and definition, as noted in the article.
Data checked October 31, 2026. All price movements above are agency-reported market observations from October 2026, not national averages or rate cards. The size of any post-election price fall in a given market cannot be known before it is quoted — this article identifies where the premium was, which is where to look first.
Go deeper with AI
This article is the starting point. Copy any of these prompts into your favorite AI assistant to learn more about post-election advertising prices in November 2026:
🔎 Build your November 4–20 buying plan
I advertise in [state/market] on [channels] with a November budget of $[amount]. Political spending inflated October prices in battleground markets (Texas linear TV CPMs +10-15% typical, premium CTV from about $34-35 to $43). Build me a week-by-week plan for November 4-20, 2026: which channels to re-quote first, what pre-squeeze benchmark to compare each quote against, and how much budget to hold back for Black Friday week (Nov 27). Flag every assumption.
🧭 Write the re-quote email to your station or rep
Draft a short, firm email to my [station / streaming rep] asking for a fresh November quote for [placement]. The October quote was $[X] CPM, set while campaign buyers were in the market. The email should: reference that political demand ended November 3, ask for the current rate for the same placement and dates, ask what make-good inventory is owed for [N] preempted October spots, and set a reply deadline of [date]. Keep it polite and under 150 words.
💡 Audit whether you actually paid a political premium
Here are my monthly CPMs by channel from August to October 2026: [paste]. Compare them with the documented October effects — linear TV +10-15% typical in Texas (some programming +30-50%), premium CTV rising from about $34-35 to $43, YouTube up about 20% per one agency. Estimate how much of my October increase looks like political premium versus normal Q4 holiday inflation, and tell me which line items are worth re-quoting in November.
Tip: replace the bracketed parts with your own situation — the more specific your prompt, the more useful the answer.
The bottom line
The 2026 midterm cycle put a documented premium into specific places: battleground local TV, targeted premium CTV, and political-heavy YouTube and social audiences in contested states. That premium's buyer leaves the market on November 3. Prices in those places should be re-quoted, preemptions settled as make-goods, and paused campaigns restarted inside the roughly two-week gap before Black Friday demand peaks on November 27. National inventory and the streaming services that refused political money carry much less premium, and should not be expected to discount.
The single most important takeaway: do not wait for a general price drop that may never be announced — the saving is specific, not general, so re-quote the exact placements that carried the political premium, in the first two weeks of November, while the release window is open.
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